Fucking hell, didn’t we just do this? Not even two weeks removed from the last primary debate, the Democratic Party is trotting out their remaining candidates back onto the stage to remind us just how long and horrid our election cycles are.
These debates will be the death of us.
At least there have been some shakeups. After both Iowa and New Hampshire, we are starting to get a more concrete view of the field and who we can expect to continue forward. But while we lost a Yang, we have gained a Bloomberg. It’s always one step forward, two steps back with this god-forsaken primary.
Obligatory disclaimer, these rankings do not reflect my personal preferences, but the relative strength of each candidate’s campaign going into the debate based on news stories and tarot card readings.
Get a drink ready and buckle up.
1. Amy Klobuchar
She may not be the frontrunner, but she is on the upswing and experiencing one hell of a momentum shift. After a better-than-expected finish in Iowa and a huge third-place showing in New Hampshire, Klobuchar is coming for Pete to claim the moderate lane from Joe Biden’s hollowed-out shell. Of all the candidates, Klobuchar has the most to brag about. She has found a way to pivot what were single-digit polling numbers into double-digit vote shares, and by “found a way” I mean “pummel Pete Buttigieg over the head.” Her strong debate performance and relentless criticism of Buttigieg earlier this month seemed to have helped her greatly among New Hampshire voters who had yet to make up their mind, and stole a lot of Pete’s thunder.
Of course, that’s a trick that often only works once. And as we head towards South Carolina and Super Tuesday, there will be a much more diverse electorate participating than the extremely white and pandered-to early states, and Klobuchar’s numbers among minority groups aren’t exactly stellar. She needs to start making a case to voters other than the Midwestern-value whites she has been courting. If there is anyone with half a brain on her campaign staff, look for the pivot to begin tonight.
Drinking Rule: Take a shot every time she asks Trump how his hair would fair in a blizzard.
2. Bernie Sanders
Iowa may have been too much of a clusterfuck for a crystal-clear win, but Bernie got it in New Hampshire. He continues to position himself as the true frontrunner of the campaign; not only did he finish at the top in the first two primaries, but his national polling remains strong and enthusiasm for him continues to build, including among minority voters. This is coming at a particularly good time, as the primary will shortly begin moving to more diverse states and electorates that feature voters other than White People Who Enjoy Diners.
He still needs to be careful, though. Buttigieg finished very closely behind Sanders in New Hampshire, and had Klobuchar not elbowed her way in at the last minute, it’s very likely Pete would have beaten him handily. Sanders is still benefiting from having a larger field of opponents, and there is still a lot of resistance to him among the older and more moderate wings of the party. He will need to have a strong showing in South Carolina to show that he does in fact have staying power and will be able to bring in a coalition of support.
Drinking Rule: Drink every time Sanders threatens to kick Bloomberg’s ass, any time, any place.
3. Pete Buttigieg
Mr. Former Mayor Pete has had some very strong showings in the first two contests and it has helped to keep him positioned as the premier moderate alternative to Sanders as Biden continues to step further into the background. But if Klobuchar isn’t doing great with minority groups, Buttigieg is actively repelling them. And with a new leg of the primary beginning, we are about to find out if the Buttigieg campaign actually has legs or if it will go the way of a black police chief while Mayor Pete is in charge.
Buttigieg is in the unenviable position of fighting a war on two fronts; he needs to find a way to convince black voters he thinks they are people too while also fending off Klobuchar’s grab for the whiter moderates of the party. In an ideal world these would not be exclusionary goals, but this is 2020 America and things are bad! Still, he has his treasure trove of fundraising dollars, and his Medicare for All Who Want It platform is the catchiest alternative to the more progressive proposals Sanders and Warren are pushing. Klobuchar may be coming for him, but he isn’t down for the count yet.
Drinking Rule: Take a drink every time Buttigieg gets grumpy that a woman talked back to him.
4. Elizabeth Warren
Things could certainly be better for the one-time potential frontrunner. The fourth-place showing in New Hampshire has her campaign seemingly on the ropes, and Warren changed her messaging to supporters from “we are going to win this” to “this will be a long primary.” It’s the kind of message that either shows she has the long game in mind or is exactly what someone says when they are losing but don’t what to admit it.
While she does have a point about there still being a lot of primary to go, the clock is against her. The last debate saw her recede to the background a bit, and while this meant she avoided the kind of pointed attacks now being directed at Buttigieg, it also means she isn’t really doing much to regain the spotlight. She seems to be putting her faith in her campaign’s ground game, and the hope that if she consistently places third or second in enough states, it may even out delegate-wise if the other candidates rise and fall from state to state. It could work, but it’s also hard to see what kind of a lane she can carve out for herself as support for candidates start to get less fluid. For a candidate who made a name for herself on detailed plans, it isn’t great to end up relying on the political equivalent of nabbing a wild-card spot.
Drinking Rule: Drink an entire keg whenever Warren insists “we can do this” because hey, you can do this!
5. Tom Steyer
Look, I don’t like this anymore than you do. But while everyone was looking at Iowa and New Hampshire, Steyer was looking at South Carolina and it’s starting to show. He is polling very well there and has racked up a decent amount of endorsements from black leaders in the state. Fucking Steyer.
It’s unclear if this will be enough to truly propel Steyer, and his national polling is still very much in the single digits. He is also still a rich guy cosplaying as a presidential candidate who doesn’t have much to offer policy-wise that isn’t just a rehash of other candidates’ better proposals. But if nothing else, Steyer could end up playing spoiler and pull a chunk of black voters away from Biden when he needs it most.
Drinking Rule: Pop champagne every time Steyer mentions his successful business or that he built it from scratch. Chase it with a shot when he neglects to talk about what kind of business it was!
6. Mike Bloomberg
We have a new, even worse billionaire joining the ranks on the debate stage! Bloomberg’s strategy of Fuck Donations, I Will Just Pay Everyone to Like Me and Forget About My Racism is bearing fruit. The mainstream media has developed an inexplicable hard-on for him. He is the new shiny not-Sanders toy for the Democrats to play with, and he is getting lots of attention.
The problem is, even though he is rising in the polls it has come solely off of his spending spree on ads and avoiding direct confrontation with any of the other candidates. He didn’t even bother campaigning in the early primary states, instead focusing on those that will be in play on Super Tuesday. This means that not only are the progressive Warren and Sanders going to be out for blood, but so will the more moderate candidates who are miffed they have been putting in time and effort campaigning while Bloomberg uses a cheat code (money). Considering he was a Republican until pretty recently, his record won’t hold up to sustained attacks and scrutiny very well.
Drinking Rule: Do a shot for every attack the other candidates throw at him and see if you remember any of this tomorrow.
7. Joe Biden
Yikes yikes yikes. Yikes. It’s not a great look for the “electability” candidate to come in fourth and fifth place, but here we are. Not only are Buttigieg and Klobuchar eating up his support among the older and more moderate voters, but Steyer is creeping in on the black vote, which is supposed to be Joe Biden’s firewall. It’s still too early to write him off completely, but Biden needs a first or second-place finish in South Carolina if he wants to keep his shambling campaign afloat.
The problem is how to do that. Biden can be a very personable and sympathetic speaker when he isn’t insulting the voters at his rallies, but we really haven’t seen that from him in the debates. The past few debates have seen him mostly coast along, which helped prevent him from waxing poetic about using record players to fix racism, but it has also made him incredibly forgettable. I don’t know what he should do to turn things around, but someone on his campaign staff needs to come up with something fast.
Drinking Rule: Finish your drink anytime Biden looks like he would rather be at Country Kitchen for their early bird special.